According to Shahr-e- Bourse, while retail investors are still dreaming of a $100k+ Bitcoin, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, has poured cold water on the market.
Contradicting the popular narrative that the “4-year cycle is dead” due to ETFs, Timmer argues that history is repeating itself, and the market is likely entering a recessionary phase.
Why Should We Be Worried? (Timmer’s Bearish Case)
History Repeats: The Bitcoin peak in October 2025 occurred exactly after 145 weeks of growth, perfectly aligning with historical cycle patterns.
The Law of Gravity: Following every major rally, a significant correction (sometimes up to 80%) and a subsequent year of stagnation is expected.
2026 Forecast: Timmer predicts 2026 will be a “rest year” or a low-volatility bear market for Bitcoin, identifying the $65,000 – $75,000 range as the critical support level.
The Counter-Argument:
On the other side, figures like Cathie Wood (Ark Invest) argue that the introduction of Spot ETFs has fundamentally changed the game, and we should not expect the deep crashes of the past.
Market Sentiment: The Clash of Analysts
| Perspective | Key Proponent | Core Argument | Future Forecast |
| Bearish (Traditional) | Fidelity (Jurrien Timmer) | The 4-year cycle is still valid. | Crypto Winter in 2026 / Drop to $65k |
| Bullish (Modern) | Ark Invest (Cathie Wood) | ETFs have stabilized the market. | Steady growth / No major crash |
