According to the Shahr-e-Bourse, gold and coins have always been known as one of the safest investment havens against domestic economic fluctuations and changes in global markets . However, in recent weeks we have witnessed significant changes in these markets that require more detailed analysis. From low gold fluctuations in global markets to new record-breaking domestic coin prices , these developments have their own complexities.
Mohammad Keshta-Aray, a member of the board of directors of the Specialized Gold and Jewelry Commission of the Iranian Chamber of Trades, has examined the market situation in a new analysis. In addition to a detailed analysis of recent coin prices (whole, half, quarter, and gram), he has also examined factors such as the purchasing power of the dollar against gold, which has a direct impact on the domestic market.
Global Volatility: Silver Leads Growth, Gold Sees Limited Volatility
In an interview with the Iranian news agency IRNA, referring to the situation of precious metals last week, Keshit-Arai announced that the global price of gold has experienced a slight decrease and limited fluctuations. However, the notable point was the significant growth in the price of silver, which increased by 3.2 percent to $57. This growth was mainly due to the decrease in global silver reserves and increased demand in the electronics industry. Palladium also grew by 12 percent to $1,659, indicating an overall strengthening of the special metals market.
Iran’s domestic market: Coin prices hit record highs
While there is not much fluctuation in the global gold market, prices in the domestic market of Iran have seen a new upward trend. Keshit-Aray noted that the increase in the exchange rate in the free market caused the price of gold and coins in the country to resume an upward trend and set new records. For example, the prices of various coins in the final trading on Thursday were as follows:
All new coin designs: 127 million and 200 thousand tomans (an increase of 6 million and 400 thousand tomans)
All old design coins: 121 million and 200 thousand tomans (an increase of 5 million and 700 thousand tomans)
Half coin: 66 million and 700 thousand tomans (increase of 3 million and 900 thousand tomans)
Quarter coin: 37 million and 600 thousand tomans (increase of 1 million and 700 thousand tomans)
One gram coin: 18 million and 200 thousand tomans (increase of 400 thousand tomans)
Also, the price of each shekel of gold reached 53 million and 100 thousand tomans, and the price of each gram of 18-karat gold reached 12 million and 258 thousand tomans.
Coin bubbles and relative market equilibrium
One of the important indicators for assessing the psychological state of the market is the coin bubble . Keshitarai pointed out that despite the re-issuance of coins by the Central Bank and the continuation of auctions, the coin bubble has not changed significantly, indicating a relative balance in the market. In emotional conditions, the coin bubble usually increases rapidly, but last week it increased by only 500,000 tomans and even at the beginning of the week it had reached its lowest level in the last few months (6 million and 600 thousand tomans).
The purchasing power of the dollar and its impact on the price of gold
Keshit-Arai went on to point out the direct impact of exchange rate changes on the domestic market, adding that any change in the dollar rate directly affects the price of gold and coins. But the point he pointed out is the decline in the purchasing power of the dollar in global markets. Currently, with the decline in the value of the dollar, the price of gold is on an upward trend. Keshit-Arai pointed to a historical comparison that shows a significant decline in the purchasing power of the dollar compared to last year; so that today, with fewer coins, the same amount of dollars can be obtained as with more coins last year.
Global challenges and high demand for gold
Finally, Keshat-Arai referred to geopolitical challenges and the increasing demand for gold globally. He predicted that this increasing trend in demand for gold will continue. The main reasons for this increase in demand are:
Use of gold in the military and electronics industries.
The efforts of some emerging countries, such as Brazil, to convert their foreign exchange reserves into gold.
This economic expert believes that whenever demand for gold increases globally, its price will naturally trend upward.
Conclusion
Given the global developments and domestic fluctuations, it seems that the future of the gold and coin market is affected by several factors. Increasing global demand and changes in domestic exchange rates are among the key factors for predicting future prices. Investors should examine these factors more carefully so that they can make more informed decisions regarding the purchase and sale of gold and coins
