According to the Shahr-e-Bourse, the significant increase in gasoline consumption in the country, which recently exceeded 130 million liters per day and sets new records on occasions, along with production lagging behind consumption and increasing costly imports, has led the government to consider using pricing tools to control consumption and reduce fuel smuggling. This move comes at a time when the government had so far avoided raising gasoline prices due to economic, social and political considerations.

According to unofficial reports, the government is considering a “third gasoline rate”; that is, creating a new rate beyond the current prices of 1,500 and 3,000 tomans. In this mechanism, after the end of the 60-liter gasoline quota of 1,500 tomans and 100 liters of gasoline of 3,000 tomans, each car will buy its excess consumption at the third rate, the exact figure of which has not yet been determined.

Despite the publication of this news in the media and on the rostrums of the parliament, the government has not yet officially responded and, by choosing cautious words, has somehow left the possibility of implementing this rate open while not explicitly rejecting it. For example, Mohammad Jafar Ghaempanah, Executive Vice President, recently announced that the gasoline quota rate will not change and that the real cost of each liter of gasoline for the government is about 34,000 tomans, while it is sold to the public at a price of 1,500 tomans. He emphasized that if the price of energy carriers increases, government vehicles and buildings will be affected first. Also, Mohsen Paknejad, Minister of Oil, said in a recent session of the parliament: “There is currently no plan to change the quotas or the price of personal cards, but expert studies are continuing and the opinions of experts are being summarized.”

The Third Rate and Its Economic Dimensions

Reza Sepahvand, a member of the parliament’s energy commission, while referring to the pressure of energy subsidies on the budget and the increase in smuggling, added that the government is seeking to reduce consumption and control smuggling through the third rate. He clarified: “Given the daily production of about 104 to 110 million liters and the consumption of nearly 137 million liters of gasoline, the deficit of 27 million liters must be compensated by imports, which costs up to $7 billion annually.”

Regarding the possible third rate, he said: “The proposed figure will be between 5 and 8,500 tomans and will only be applied to refueling from parking lot cards, not personal cards.” However, Sepahvand warned that the parliament does not agree with this plan, because individuals may sell their personal quotas at the third rate, and in fact fuel consumption and smuggling will increase. Ambiguity and inflationary effects
Economic experts believe that the lack of transparency and the publication of unofficial information about the third rate will exacerbate inflationary expectations. Seyyed Hamid Hosseini, an energy expert, said in this regard: “The government should announce the third rate in a transparent manner so that the inflationary effect is limited and people can make informed decisions. “Creating ambiguity and contradictions will only increase inflationary expectations and make it difficult to manage energy policies.”