According to the Shahr-e-Bourse, Pantea Hakimi, manager of the Gladis Gold Fund of the Novin Capital Investment Company, examined the global economic situation and the role of gold in crises in the specialized panel “Market Analysis and Gold Funds; Trends and Forecasts” on the sidelines of the Kish Inox 2025 exhibition.
Referring to the key economic and political indicators of the world, she stated: The global economic situation in times of crisis is not a pleasant trend. The probability index of an economic recession in the United States based on the Federal Reserve models in November 2025 is about 34%, which indicates a moderate but decreasing risk.
Hakimi added: The main issue in the world today is tariff wars. In recent years, with Trump’s return to power, tensions and tariff increases had intensified, but recently agreements have been signed to suspend China’s retaliatory tariffs against the United States, which could help reduce the pressures.
Comparing the US and Chinese economies, the manager of the Gold Fund Gladis said: The US economy has recovered relatively and policies such as reducing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and monetary and fiscal expansionary measures have been implemented to restore prosperity; however, challenges remain in the areas of trade tariffs, employment and consumption. In China, economic growth has been slow and the growth rate is expected to reach about 3% in the coming years.
Emphasizing the global political risk index, Hakimi explained: This index, which was first developed by Federal Reserve economists, consists of the geopolitical threat index, the geopolitical action index and the aggregate index of the two. Historical analysis shows that during periods of wars and crises, the value of this index has exceeded the average level of 100 points and at the same time the price of gold has increased.
He continued: In recent years, this index has fluctuated above the historical average and has increased since the US invasion of Iraq in 2006 until the Russia-Ukraine war. The result of this trend has been a significant increase in geopolitical risk and a rise in the price of gold.
Hakimi also referred to the investor sentiment index and said: This index reaches its lowest level during periods of global crisis and at the same time, the price of gold increases. In the past year, with the intensification of tariff wars and political tensions, the investor sentiment index has reached its historical low and has determined the growth of gold.
Regarding the gold market, he explained: The global gold price increased by more than 35 percent in 2025 and reached record-breaking levels such as $3,456 in the third quarter. This increase was due to strong demand from central banks and investors.
The manager of the Gold Fund Gladis added: The trend of world gold reserves is shifting from west to east. China with about 2,279 tons, India with 876 tons and Japan have had the largest increase in reserves, but the largest reserves are still in the hands of the United States with more than 8,133 tons.
Regarding the composition of gold demand, he said: The investment sector, including ETFs and central banks, has increased, while decorative consumption has decreased. This change indicates the market’s desire for safe assets and preserving capital value.
Citing the assessment of international institutions, the manager of the Goldis Gold Fund stated: The average estimate of three reputable global institutions predicts an upward trend in gold prices in 2026, and analytical scenarios even consider a target of $5,000 per ounce as possible. The probability of the global gold price continuing its upward trend is estimated at about 67%.
He concluded: Political and economic uncertainties, weakening economic growth in major powers, and an increased desire for safe assets are the most important factors supporting this outlook.
